A private economic report from one of Africa’s largest industrial groups has surfaced with a naira projection that runs counter to years of pessimistic forecasts about the currency’s trajectory.
The document, produced by an in-house research team that rarely publishes for outside audiences, maps a quarter-by-quarter currency outlook stretching through December 2026.
The numbers inside suggest the naira’s strongest stretch this year may still lie ahead, and the reasoning behind that call deserves close attention.
Whether you hold naira savings, earn in dollars, or trade Nigerian equities, the forecast inside this report could reshape how you think about the rest of 2026.
What the Dangote report projects for the naira through Q4 2026
The Dangote Group’s Economic Research and Intelligence unit estimates the naira will trade at approximately ₦1,330 per dollar during the final quarter of 2026, Nairametrics reported.
The full-year average settles at roughly ₦1,385 per dollar under the base case, with the trajectory showing steady appreciation from Q2 through Q4.
That full-year average represents a meaningful gain from the ₦1,431 rate the naira posted on the first official trading session of the year, Nairametrics reported.
The currency had already appreciated by roughly 4% during the first half of 2026, trading near ₦1,380 per dollar in the official window, Nairametrics reported.
That rally extended through August, when the exchange rate fell to approximately ₦1,330 per dollar in the official market, matching the Q4 target early.
Three forces underpin the bullish projection, the Dangote research team explained in the report obtained by Nairametrics.
Reserve accumulation, positive real interest rates that lured foreign portfolio capital, and a shrinking fuel import bill driven by expanded domestic refining are reinforcing each other.
“Staff project the naira to hold its firmer level, averaging ₦1,405/$ in the second quarter, about ₦1,340/$ in the third and ₦1,330/$ in the fourth, for a full-year average close to ₦1,385/$.” — Dangote Group Economic Research and Intelligence H1 2026 Report
The projection carries weight because the Dangote Group operates across sectors that live and die by exchange rate swings, including cement, fertilizer, sugar, and petroleum refining.
Record reserves and investor inflows back the naira’s momentum
Nigeria’s net foreign reserves have climbed to a record $46 billion, providing the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with its largest-ever external buffer, Nairametrics reported.
CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso said stable foreign exchange conditions and higher reserves are giving investors the confidence to move capital in and out of Nigeria.
The CBN reinforced that signal in September by cutting the Monetary Policy Rate by 350 basis points to 23%, its largest single reduction since 2006.
The move shifted real interest rates closer to neutral while still keeping them positive enough to attract foreign portfolio flows, a combination the Dangote report flagged as one of three pillars supporting the naira.
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The World Bank separately noted that the naira ranked among Africa’s most resilient currencies in the second quarter of 2026, with depreciation capped at just 2.6% even as exchange rate pressure swept across the continent.
That designation marked a stark reversal from 2024, when the bank’s own Africa’s Pulse report classified the naira among the continent’s worst-performing currencies after it shed roughly 43% of its value in the first eight months of 2024.
Retail investor activity has mirrored the improving macro backdrop, with new stock market participation surging on platforms like Cowrywise as first-time buyers gain confidence in the broader system.
Nigeria’s top global ranking in crypto payment adoption adds another layer to the narrative of a population gradually rebuilding trust in its financial infrastructure after years of volatility.
Dangote’s GDP scenarios highlight the policy risks still in play
The same report outlined two growth scenarios for Nigeria’s economy in 2026, reflecting uncertainty about the pace and timing of monetary policy easing from the CBN, according to Nairametrics.
Under the downside case, tighter monetary conditions and weaker business confidence could hold full-year GDP growth to 3.9%, the report warned.
Under the upside case, stronger crude oil output and earlier-than-expected rate cuts could push that figure to 4.4%, significantly outpacing recent years’ growth trajectory.
The World Bank projects Nigeria’s GDP growth will accelerate from 4.0% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, with annual expansion of 4.4% in both 2027 and 2028.
Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, noted that growth forecasts were upgraded for nearly three-quarters of Sub-Saharan African countries across the region.
The narrow gap between the two institutional projections suggests broad agreement on Nigeria’s direction, but the Dangote report’s emphasis on reserve strength and real interest rate dynamics points to conditions that may favor the naira longer than some external forecasters initially expected.
Key figures from the Dangote H1 2026 Economic Report
- The report projects a Q4 2026 naira rate of ₦1,330 per dollar and a full-year average of ₦1,385 per dollar, Nairametrics reported.
- Nigeria’s net foreign reserves reached a record $46 billion, strengthening the CBN’s intervention capacity, Nairametrics reported.
- The World Bank capped the naira’s maximum Q2 depreciation at 2.6%, designating it among Africa’s most resilient currencies.
- The downside GDP scenario for 2026 puts full-year growth at 3.9%, while the upside scenario lifts it to 4.4%, the report indicated.
- The World Bank projects Nigeria’s GDP growth will accelerate from 4.0% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, Nairametrics reported.
