Imagine opening an app that books your dinner, fills out your forms, and answers your email. Millions of people did exactly that after Meta launched its Muse agent.
Weeks later, many of those users had stopped opening it. Sensor Tower data shows 22.5% of Muse users were still active at day 14, compared with 26.8% for ChatGPT.
Pivotal Research is, however, betting that Meta’s new Muse Wonder model changes that, raising its price target on Meta Platforms to $930 from $790, Stocktwits reported.
The company sees returns on its consistent AI spending coming into play. Meta reports its third-quarter earnings on October 21, and the results could prove the research firm’s case.
What Pivotal Research and rival analysts are saying
Pivotal analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said that Meta’s AI investment returns are beginning to reflect, highlighting the strong adoption of the Muse personal assistant and a new model that performs at or near parity with leading frontier labs, TheFly reported.
The $930 target is about 16% above the $799 consensus among 63 analysts tracked by S&P Global, Bitgo Finance noted.
Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett set a $886 target, about 19% above the October 12 close. He said the launch weakens the bear case that Meta’s AI spending and hiring spree amount to waste, TipRanks reported.
Where analyst targets stand
- Pivotal Research (Jeffrey Wlodarczak): Buy, $930 target, raised from $790
- Rosenblatt (Barton Crockett): $886 target, about 19% upside
- BNP Paribas (Nick Jones): Outperform, $885 target
- Consensus: $799 target across 63 analysts, about 7.5% upside
- Needham (Laura Martin): Hold, no price target
Meta’s new offerings with Muse Wonder
Meta introduced Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full on October 12, calling them its most capable models yet, Reuters reported.
Shares rose impressively in trading that day. The models will power Muse, a personal agent that can browse the web, fill out forms, book restaurants, and connect to email and calendar apps, TechCrunch reported.
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How much the new models cost
Consumers would need to pay $20 or $100 a month to hit Muse Wonder in the Muse agent app, CNBC reported.
Muse Wonder Full is limited to Muse Code subscribers on $50 or $200 monthly plans.
Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang said the model was trained to “try other approaches instead of stalling” when tasks hit obstacles.
He added that developer pricing will stay below leading models from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Artificial Analysis scored Muse Wonder Full at 56 on its Intelligence Index, tying Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 5.5 and trailing only Claude Opus 5.5, which scored 58, VentureBeat reported.
The standard Muse Wonder scored 52.
Why retention and cash flow temper the bullish case
Muse recorded 2.8 million installs in its first 12 days, Pivotal noted. Sensor Tower estimated ChatGPT reached 3.7 million global downloads over the same window, so the comparison depends on how you count.
Sensor Tower data also showed Muse’s day-one retention at 73.3%, against 41.3% for ChatGPT.
By day 14, Muse had slipped to 22.5%, below ChatGPT’s 26.8% and well under WhatsApp’s 67%.
Needham analyst Laura Martin holds a Hold rating and calls Meta “notoriously slow at monetizing new products.”
She points to WhatsApp, which Meta bought in 2014 and began monetizing with ads in 2025.
BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones kept his Outperform rating but trimmed his long-term monetization expectations for Muse.
Meta expects 2026 capital spending of $130 billion to $145 billion, TIKR reported. Second-quarter capex alone topped $31.1 billion, which helped push free cash flow down to $784 million.
Revenue grew 28% to $60.8 billion in the quarter, and management guided to $61 billion to $64 billion for the third quarter.
Trust is a retention test too
An agent that needs access to your accounts must earn trust before it earns habits. Some users complained on social media that Muse accessed private messages without authorization, a claim Meta has disputed, CNBC reported.
Wang said the company is educating users about permissions they may have granted and then forgotten. Amazon has also reportedly blocked Muse from its online store, Bloomberg said.
Moving forward, on October 21, Meta will give investors their first look at Muse’s revenue contribution and its guidance on 2027 capex.
Meta shares have already gained about 36% in September. The $930 target is based on Muse converting from a user growth story into a revenue story.
