Nigeria’s top stock exchange executive stepped into the Presidential Villa carrying a projection that most economists would struggle to defend out loud.
Umaru Kwairanga, chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group, told President Bola Tinubu that a $1 trillion economy is achievable before the decade ends.
The claim landed during a high-level briefing where NGX leadership laid out three years of explosive growth across the capital market.
Market capitalization has jumped from ₦30 trillion in 2023 to ₦160 trillion, and the All-Share Index has climbed past 244,000 points.
Those numbers gave Kwairanga enough ammunition to make a promise that the underlying economic data may not yet fully support on its own.
How NGX market capitalization surged fivefold under Tinubu’s reforms
Temi Popoola, group managing director and CEO of NGX Group, delivered a detailed performance update to President Tinubu on August 6, 2026. He told the president that the total value of listed equities had grown from roughly ₦30 trillion to ₦160 trillion, the State House confirmed. Popoola projected that total market capitalization could reach ₦230 trillion by the end of 2026 as new listings come to market.
Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele described Nigeria’s capital market as the best performing in the world over the past three years. He attributed the growth to macroeconomic reforms including fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalization, and the ongoing banking sector recapitalization program.
Banks raised a combined ₦4.65 trillion during the recapitalization exercise, the CBN confirmed. Central Bank Governor Yemi Cardoso noted that close to 75% of the capital came from domestic investors.
What the stock market rally has meant for ordinary Nigerian investors
Popoola estimated that the sustained three-year equity rally has created between 500,000 and 900,000 new naira millionaires across the country. He acknowledged that the exchange does not have exact figures, but he described the wealth effect as broadly distributed among market participants.
“We believe the one trillion dollar economy is achievable. We have the capacity. We have the resources. We have the material and human resources to reach the one trillion dollar even before 2030 with your support.” — Umaru Kwairanga, Chairman, NGX Group
Oyedele challenged the NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission to set a target of growing the capital market to $1 trillion.
President Tinubu reinforced that vision by disclosing that his administration plans to reform and eventually list NNPC Limited on the capital market. The Petroleum Industry Act of 2021 already contains legal provisions for an NNPC public offering on the Nigerian Exchange, Nairametrics reported.
Why some analysts think the $1 trillion target is a stretch
Kwairanga’s optimism faces headwinds when stacked against the raw data on Nigeria’s current economic output and growth trajectory right now. Nigeria’s GDP stood at roughly $291 billion in 2025, according to an analysis published by BusinessDay. Reaching $1 trillion by 2030 would require the economy to more than triple in dollar terms within five years from that starting position.
Idris Oyekan, an analyst at Quantum Zenith, told BusinessDay that Nigeria would need consistent annual economic growth of 10% to 12% over the coming decade.
Prof. Ken Ife, chief strategist at the ECOWAS Commission, said the transition to a $1 trillion economy would require $1.74 trillion in cumulative investment. He stressed that 81% of that funding, or about $1.41 trillion, must come from the private sector rather than government, Daily Trust reported.
NNPC listing and Dangote Refinery IPO could reshape the market’s trajectory
Tinubu’s pledge to reform and list NNPC on the Nigerian Exchange could significantly alter the capital market’s size and depth going forward. A successful listing of one of Africa’s largest national oil companies would add substantial market capitalization to the exchange in a single transaction.
The anticipated Dangote Refinery IPO, expected to raise as much as $5 billion, represents another potential market-changing event in the near future. The refinery is reportedly targeting an October listing with a valuation in the range of $40 billion to $50 billion, according to Reuters and Bloomberg reporting.
More on Dangote Refinery IPO:
If both listings materialize, Nigeria’s equity market would gain two industrial heavyweights capable of drawing in significant domestic and international capital.
Key data points from the NGX briefing at the State House
- NGX market capitalization grew from ₦30 trillion (2023) to ₦160 trillion (August 2026), a fivefold increase
- All-Share Index surged from 52,000 to 244,000 points in the same three-year period
- NGX estimates the rally created between 500,000 and 900,000 new naira millionaires
- Banking recapitalization raised ₦4.65 trillion, with close to 75% from domestic investors, the CBN confirmed
- NNPC will be reformed and listed on the capital market, President Tinubu confirmed
- NGX projects total market capitalization of ₦230 trillion by the end of 2026
