For eleven straight months, Nigeria’s inflation moved in the direction borrowers and business owners wanted: downward. That streak snapped in March 2026, and by April, headline inflation climbed to 15.69%.

The 305th MPC session, scheduled for May 19–20, 2026, arrives as geopolitical turmoil involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has pushed Brent crude past $120 per barrel. Eight economists polled by BusinessDay expect the benchmark rate to hold steady at 26.5%, but that consensus masks deep uncertainty that could reshape your loans, savings, and grocery bills.

Inflation data puts CBN rate cut hopes on hold

April’s Consumer Price Index confirmed that Nigeria’s disinflationary momentum has stalled. The National Bureau of Statistics reported headline inflation at 15.69%, up from 15.38% in March. Food inflation crossed above the headline rate for the first time since August 2025, reaching 16.06% year-on-year, Nairametrics reported.

Month-on-month inflation did slow to 2.13% from 4.18% in March, and core inflation dropped to 1.03% monthly from 4.03%. Razia Khan, managing director and chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank, said Nigeria’s “inflation expectations are not well anchored” despite recent FX and fuel subsidy reforms, pointing to March’s 4.2% monthly spike as evidence that fuel price increases rapidly filter into broader CPI components, BusinessDay reported.

“We now see the CBN keeping its policy rate on hold at 26.5%. Market participants will likely watch closely for any indication of future tightening.” — Razia Khan, Standard Chartered Bank, via BusinessDay

CBN’s tightening history and global caution reinforce the case for holding

The current 26.5% benchmark reflects one of the most aggressive tightening campaigns in Nigerian monetary history, with the CBN raising the MPR by a cumulative 1,600 basis points between May 2022 and November 2024, when the MPR peaked at 27.5%. A cautious easing cycle began in September 2025, and a second 50-basis-point cut at the February 2026 meeting brought the rate to its current level, the CBN’s official policy record confirmed.

Since February, escalating Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude from $103.7 per barrel in March to $120.4 in April, Nairametrics noted. Globally, 14 of 19 major central banks that met since the conflict escalated held rates, including the Fed, Bank of England, and ECB, Yahoo Finance reported. Tunde Abidoye, head of research at Quest Merchant Bank, argued that narrowing the interest rate differential with advanced economies would be counterproductive, BusinessDay reported.

CPPE warns against tightening as election spending adds liquidity risk

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise warned against additional rate increases. In a statement signed by CEO Dr. Muda Yusuf, the CPPE argued that Nigeria’s inflation is fundamentally structural and supply-driven, making conventional tightening ineffective, Premium Times reported. Yusuf described the environment as a “fragile disinflation process,” noting that food, transportation, energy, healthcare, and hospitality drove nearly 87% of April’s price pressures, BusinessAMLive reported.

Political spending ahead of the 2027 elections and improved Federation Account Allocation Committee disbursements to states are injecting liquidity, the CPPE flagged as a material inflation risk, Economy Post noted. A CBN survey found that 63.3% of Nigerian respondents want rates reduced, while 26% favor holding and 10.7% support hikes, Channels Television reported.

Key numbers shaping the CBN’s 305th MPC decision

• Headline inflation: 15.69% in April 2026, up from 15.38% in March, the NBS reported.
• Food inflation: 16.06% year-on-year, surpassing headline inflation for the first time since August 2025.
• Current MPR: 26.5%, following a 50-basis-point cut at the February 2026 meeting.
• Brent crude: Rose from $103.7 per barrel in March to $120.4 in April amid Middle East tensions.
• Global context: 74% of 19 major central banks that met since the Middle East conflict escalated have held rates.

What the MPC outcome means for Nigerian borrowers and savers

Olufunmilola Adebowale, head of research at Parthian Partners, cautioned against reading April’s softer monthly print as sustained disinflation, calling it normalization after March’s energy-driven spike rather than evidence pressures are fading, BusinessDay reported.

For everyday Nigerians, a rate hold at 26.5% means borrowing costs remain elevated across personal loans, mortgages, and business credit. Lending rates have stayed high even after previous MPR reductions, partly because of structural bottlenecks including the elevated cash reserve ratio, Yusuf warned via the CPPE statement. Savers benefit from positive real returns, with the MPR sitting well above 15.69% headline inflation. Analysts at Proshare indicated the CBN may adopt a dovish stance later in 2026 if moderation becomes consistent, though foreign exchange stability will prove decisive, the BusinessAMLive report noted.