For eleven consecutive months, Nigeria’s inflation rate moved in one direction: down, from a peak of 27.4% to a five-year low. That winning streak ended in March 2026, and the forecast for April suggests the reversal is gaining steam.

The Financial Market Dealers Association (FMDA) now projects headline inflation will climb to 16.42% year-on-year in April, up sharply from 15.38% in March. If official figures from the National Bureau of Statistics confirm this trajectory, it would mark the first consecutive monthly acceleration since early 2025.

The projection arrives less than a week before the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee convenes on May 19 for its 305th meeting. Policymakers who engineered a twelve-percentage-point decline now confront fresh challenges that could reshape their approach to rates and liquidity.

April’s projected 16.42% rate signals a troubling shift in Nigeria’s price trajectory

The FMDA’s April 2026 Inflation Forecast report, released on May 13, shows month-on-month inflation projected at 2.78%, a notable deceleration from the 4.18% spike recorded in March. That monthly figure still sits well above the readings that characterized late 2025 and early 2026.

The scale of this reversal becomes clear against the trajectory Nigeria built over the previous year of policy tightening. Headline inflation peaked at 27.4% in March 2025 before falling to 15.06% by February 2026, driven by aggressive CBN tightening, a stabilizing naira, and improved domestic food supply conditions, according to Trading Economics.

Fuel and food costs are converging to drive Nigeria’s inflation reversal

Average petrol prices jumped 9.44% to N1,322.50 per liter in April from N1,208.38 in March, the FMDA report noted. That increase is substantially smaller than the 37.35% spike recorded the month before, but it still adds significant pressure on households.

The FMDA’s domestic food price index climbed to 3.69 in April from 3.60 in March, with yams posting the sharpest month-on-month increase at 3.98%. Maize, millet, and sorghum also recorded gains, while rice edged lower by a marginal 0.13%.

Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), has highlighted the direct link between fuel costs and consumer prices, as reported by Nairametrics.

“Rising fuel prices are causing transportation costs to soar, and the costs of goods like food are being pushed up as well. In turn, this is worsening the cost-of-living crisis for Nigerians.” — Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE)

Professor Tayo Bello, a development economist at Adeleke University, has noted that Nigerian prices adjust upward quickly but decline very slowly, meaning temporary shocks can embed themselves in the price structure for months, Bello told Nairametrics.

Global commodity shocks add external pressure on Nigeria’s import-dependent economy

The FMDA report highlights a tightening in global commodity conditions during April, driven by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Brent crude oil surged to $120.40 per barrel from $103.70 the previous month, the report noted, citing World Bank Pink Sheet data and linking the spike to renewed Middle East tensions.

The FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.7 points in April, its third consecutive monthly increase, while the World Bank Energy Index climbed to 146.4 from 130.6 points, the FMDA report noted. US inflation accelerated to 3.8% from 3.3%, and Euro Area inflation climbed to 3.0% from 2.6%, the report also noted.

Key global indicators from the FMDA report

• Brent crude oil: $120.4/bbl in April, up from $103.7/bbl in March (Source: World Bank Pink Sheet, cited in FMDA report)
• FAO Food Price Index: 130.7 points, up 1.6% from March (Source: FAO, cited in FMDA report)
• US inflation: 3.8% in April, up from 3.3%; Euro Area: 3.0%, up from 2.6% (Source: FMDA report)

The CBN faces a difficult balancing act ahead of its May 19 meeting

The CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 26.5% in February, citing confidence in the disinflation process, Governor Olayemi Cardoso announced. Two consecutive months of accelerating inflation and a changed global energy landscape are now testing that outlook.

Market participants widely expect the MPC to hold rates at the May 19–20 meeting rather than risk another cut. Dr. Yusuf has cautioned that cost pass-through from higher energy prices could reverse recent gains in stability, as reported by TV360 Nigeria.

The naira’s 1.36% appreciation in April to N1,361.22 per dollar offers some import-side relief, the FMDA report noted. The month-on-month moderation from 4.18% in March to a projected 2.78% in April also suggests the worst of the fuel price shock may have passed through the system.