At the start of 2026, most of Nigeria’s top economists expected the naira to trade between ₦1,430 and ₦1,500 against the dollar. A few optimistic voices floated ₦1,350 as a best case, but the consensus treated it as aspirational.

Five months later, the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market has delivered a number that those forecasters did not expect. The naira is trading at ₦1,358 per dollar, with intraday quotes as low as ₦1,352, according to Central Bank of Nigeria data.

If you hold savings in naira, send money from abroad, or run a business that relies on imports, the next few weeks could matter. The question is whether the naira punches through ₦1,350 or stalls at this level.

NFEM data confirms naira trading below ₦1,360 for the first time in months

The volume-weighted average rate at the NFEM settled at approximately ₦1,358 per dollar on May 12, 2026, with trading between ₦1,352 and ₦1,365, CBN exchange rate data confirmed. The rate extends a steady downward trend from late April.

The naira closed April at ₦1,374 per dollar, the first time since 2024 that the currency posted an April gain, Nairametrics reported. The naira has appreciated by roughly 14.7% against the dollar over the past 12 months, Trading Economics data showed, a reversal that seemed improbable during the depreciation cycles of 2023 and 2024.

Why the naira has beaten every major 2026 forecast

Bismarck Rewane, managing director of Financial Derivatives Company, projected in late 2025 that the naira would stabilize within ₦1,450 to ₦1,500, Independent Newspaper reported. CardinalStone Partners offered the most optimistic view, estimating ₦1,350 to ₦1,450 in its January 2026 outlook.

“We expect the naira to appreciate to a range of ₦1,350 to ₦1,450 in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals,” CardinalStone stated in its report, Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains, Daily Trust reported. The federal government budgeted ₦1,512 per dollar in the 2026 appropriation bill, a gap exceeding ₦150 with the current rate.

“The official and parallel market rates have converged more closely, now trading within a 1 to 3% margin. A major improvement from the 50 to 70% gap observed pre-reforms.” — Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director, Financial Derivatives Company, at the June 2025 Lagos Business School Breakfast session, via Punch.

CBN reserves and the $7.5 billion intervention powering the rally

Nigeria’s gross external reserves climbed to $50.45 billion as of February 2026, the highest in 13 years, CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso confirmed, Punch reported. The apex bank injected approximately $7.5 billion into the forex market throughout 2025, an intervention that helped lay the groundwork for this year’s rally, Legit.ng reported.

Reserves have since eased to $48.36 billion as of April 30, 2026, down from $49.18 billion at the start of that month, Nairametrics reported. That drawdown highlights the cost of stability, though reserves remain well above $40.19 billion at the end of 2024.

Risks that could stall the naira’s push below ₦1,350

Yemi Kale, chief economist at Afreximbank, warned the naira would remain under pressure despite avoiding a sharp collapse. His baseline scenario projected ₦1,313 by June and ₦1,340 by December, Daily Trust reported.

Key risk factors for the second half of 2026

• Oil price decline: CardinalStone projected crude averaging $55.08 per barrel in 2026, though the firm argued structural FX improvements could cushion the revenue impact.
• Reserve drawdown: Reserves fell from $50.45 billion in February to $48.36 billion by April, potentially constraining future CBN interventions.
•  Pre-election spending: Rising government expenditure ahead of election cycles could pressure the exchange rate.
• Parallel market premium: The spread between official and parallel rates has widened intermittently as speculative demand surges.

What the ₦1,350 level means for Nigerian households

A stronger naira at the official window translates into lower landed costs for imported goods, from raw materials to consumer electronics. Rewane noted at a January 2026 event that the naira’s fair value sits around ₦1,256.79 per dollar on purchasing power parity, meaning it remains undervalued by roughly 11%, Legit.ng reported.

Ayokunle Olubunmi, head of financial institutions ratings at Agusto & Co., said the CBN’s approach reflects a focus on fundamentals rather than targeting a specific rate, Legit.ng noted. The monetary policy rate at 26.5% has created a carry trade dynamic, attracting portfolio inflows but raising borrowing costs for Nigerian businesses.